The much awaited suspense over the Fed’s September interest rate hike was finally put to an end. It did create much volatility in the market and bought in some good news for gold.
Gold prices finished the week on a three day rally as the Federal Reserve’s sudden concern over emerging market growth boosted safe-haven demand.
The volatility was like a storm for gold and it tried to be holding on to the gains.
Thursday was a crucial day for gold as all eyes were focused on the FOMC meet that was due to release its monetary policy.
Fed Chairwoman, Yellen, added that there was an argument to be made for raising rates in September; however, because of the global weakness and fragile financial market, the committee decided to err on the side of caution and leave rates unchanged.
We saw the global economic growth led to volatility shocks in the global equities market. This once again raised concerns over the world economic development. Hence the FOMC dropped to normalize US monetary policy after announcing concerns on overseas growth.
The Fed decided to maintain near-zero interest rate levels, citing recent equity volatility exacerbated by a global growth slowdown.
The central bank’s ultra-loose monetary policy, coupled with dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday, helped gold end a three day losing streak as it finished Friday in positive territory.
The spot gold price was last at $1,136/1,136.40 per ounce, its highest in around two weeks and up $3.80 on Thursday’s close.
Though in her proceedings press conference, Fed chairwoman did not rule out an October hike but the market is keener about a hike in December. This would force the FOMC to raise rates sharply to combat said inflation and prevent the organization from increasing the federal funds rate at a gradual pace.
Since the Fed removed all calendar references in its forward guidance in April, the bank is now entirely data-dependent.
Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity somewhat and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term.
Inflation remains a persistent issue – the FOMC said that declines in energy prices and non-energy imports are the underlying causes preventing inflation from hitting the Fed’s target of two percent.
As of now a weak US dollar would prove to be positive for gold in the near future and if the equities markets lower then gold could rally further.
But the current statement released by the Fed that it intends to raise rates by year-end has made the market players believe that this price rise on gold will be short lived as they expected the dollar to strengthen as early as October.
The Fed’s next opportunity to raise rates will fall in October or December.
Looking ahead, the Fed’s stance on interest rates and heightened concerns of the global economy hurting the U.S. economic recovery has created some strong positive sentiment in the gold market, at least in the short term.
As we continue to see the after effects of the FOMC meet on gold, prices of the yellow metal are expected to rise in the short term.
As there is not much important data slated to release next week, gold prices are expected to range around 1150$ an ounce but will continue to struggle as soon the rate hike news creeps into the market.
Most analysts are centering on the global market for gold to rally. The fact that the central bank is concerned about the impact the global economy is having on equity markets, some analyst note that further weakness in U.S. stock markets could benefit gold.
Some even expect the U.S. dollar to remain at elevated levels as markets continue to price in a rate hike later this year, which will limit gold’s potential.
Although U.S. economic data will be limited next week some of reports that could create some volatility in the marketplace include manufacturing data, including durable goods numbers for August, home sales data for August and the final second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product report.
A relatively light economic calendar next week means the gold market will continue to digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave rates unchanged.