Gold prices have fallen 5.3% from the end of February high and they have almost given back 50% of the December to February gains
Gold prices slipped towards week low on Thursday as investors awaited the employment report due on Friday, a factor that would unofficially strengthen the interest rate hike in the FOMC meet next week.
Gold’s latest pull down followed the release of better-than-expected US private jobs data midweek, boosting the dollar ahead of the release of official monthly payrolls figures on Friday.
- Private employment, which excludes government agencies, rose by 227,000 after a 221,000 increase the prior month. It was the biggest gain since July. Construction jobs, which can fluctuate depending on the weather, rose by 58,000, the strongest in almost a decade, and followed a 40,000 increase in January. Manufacturing payrolls gained 28,000, matching the most since August 2013. Meanwhile, retail positions fell by 26,000, the most in four years.
- The ECB held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0% and left the pace of its bond purchases unchanged on March 9th, as widely expected. Both the deposit rate and the lending rate were also left steady at 0.4% and 0.25%, respectively.
- The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits went up by 20000 to 243000 in the week ended March 4th 2017, slightly above expectations of 235000
- 2008 Nonfarm business sector labor productivity in the United States increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2016, following a downwardly revised 3.3 percent rise in the previous period and below market expectations of a 1.5 percent gain.
While unseasonably warm weather may have boosted the payrolls count, the data represent President Donald Trump’s first full month in office and overlap with a surge in economic buoyancy following his election victory. The figures also corroborate recent comments by Federal Reserve officials that flagged a likely interest-rate increase this month.
Bullion’s being pulled back down toward $1,200 an ounce in the worst losing run since October as positive US economic data underpinned expectations that interest rates could probably be raised several times this year, starting with a hike next week.
After raising rates just a single time in 2015 and also in 2016, the pace may quicken this year. The so-called dot plot from Fed policy makers shows an expectation for three increases this year, and last Friday, Yellen dropped hints the bank might end up having to hike them more than planned in 2017.
After Wednesday’s upbeat private payrolls data, markets were pointing towards more than 90 % chances of rate hike in March meeting; gold prices are likely to face the weakness amidst the strength in the dollar. Separately, the weaker CPI released from China is also likely to put pressure on gold, given the fact that gold is considered as a hedge against inflation.
Gold prices slipped on Friday, building on a loss for the week as better-than-expected U.S. employment data backs the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will decide to boost interest rates at its meeting next week.
Higher interest rates lift the appeal of holding dollars. That also means that a stronger dollar cuts the worth of holding non-yielding gold that’s priced in this denomination.
We see this sell-off as tied into the increased chance of a US rate rise next week. Looking further out, sentiments for the yellow metal are bullish.